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持有摩托车驾照的汽车司机对摩托车与汽车碰撞事故的责任是否更小?一种非参数方法。

Are car drivers holding a motorcycle licence less responsible for motorcycle--car crash occurrence? A non-parametric approach.

作者信息

Magazzù Domenico, Comelli Mario, Marinoni Alessandra

机构信息

Department of Applied Health Sciences, University of Pavia, 21 Bassi Avenue, 27100 Pavia, Italy.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2006 Mar;38(2):365-70. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.10.007. Epub 2005 Dec 20.

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to evaluate the effect of a specific motorcycle licence, held by car drivers, in responsibility for motorcycle-car crashes. The data were provided by a multicentric case-control study (MAIDS) regarding the risk of crash and serious injuries of motorcyclists. A non-parametric method, classification and regression tree (CART), was used to accomplish the objective, and then compared to standard unconditional logistic regression. Drivers owning a motorcycle licence turned out to be less responsible for motorcycle-car crashes than drivers who do not have one; both types of analysis are consistent with this result. It is reasonable to assume that car drivers who hold a motorcycle licence have acquired more ability in riding and controlling two wheeled vehicles than drivers without a licence, and this may help them in predicting motorcycles manoeuvres.

摘要

这项工作的目的是评估汽车驾驶员持有的特定摩托车驾照对摩托车与汽车碰撞事故责任的影响。数据由一项关于摩托车手碰撞风险和重伤情况的多中心病例对照研究(MAIDS)提供。采用非参数方法——分类与回归树(CART)来实现这一目标,然后与标准无条件逻辑回归进行比较。结果表明,拥有摩托车驾照的驾驶员在摩托车与汽车碰撞事故中的责任比没有驾照的驾驶员小;两种分析类型都与这一结果一致。有理由认为,持有摩托车驾照的汽车驾驶员比没有驾照的驾驶员在骑行和控制两轮车辆方面获得了更多能力,这可能有助于他们预测摩托车的操作。

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