Camerer Colin F, Fehr Ernst
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Science. 2006 Jan 6;311(5757):47-52. doi: 10.1126/science.1110600.
The canonical model in economics considers people to be rational and self-regarding. However, much evidence challenges this view, raising the question of when "Economic Man" dominates the outcome of social interactions, and when bounded rationality or other-regarding preferences dominate. Here we show that strategic incentives are the key to answering this question. A minority of self-regarding individuals can trigger a "noncooperative" aggregate outcome if their behavior generates incentives for the majority of other-regarding individuals to mimic the minority's behavior. Likewise, a minority of other-regarding individuals can generate a "cooperative" aggregate outcome if their behavior generates incentives for a majority of self-regarding people to behave cooperatively. Similarly, in strategic games, aggregate outcomes can be either far from or close to Nash equilibrium if players with high degrees of strategic thinking mimic or erase the effects of others who do very little strategic thinking. Recently developed theories of other-regarding preferences and bounded rationality explain these findings and provide better predictions of actual aggregate behavior than does traditional economic theory.
经济学中的经典模型认为人是理性且只顾自身利益的。然而,大量证据对这一观点提出了挑战,引发了这样一个问题:何时“经济人”主导社会互动的结果,何时有限理性或利他偏好占主导。在此我们表明,战略激励是回答这个问题的关键。如果少数只顾自身利益的个体的行为促使大多数利他个体模仿少数人的行为,那么这少数个体就能引发一个“非合作”的总体结果。同样,如果少数利他个体的行为促使大多数只顾自身利益的人采取合作行为,那么这少数个体就能产生一个“合作”的总体结果。类似地,在战略博弈中,如果具有高度战略思维的参与者模仿或消除那些很少进行战略思维的参与者的影响,总体结果可能远离或接近纳什均衡。最近发展起来的利他偏好理论和有限理性理论解释了这些发现,并且比传统经济理论能更好地预测实际的总体行为。