Rainham Daniel G C, Smoyer-Tomic Karen E, Sheridan Scott C, Burnett Richard T
McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, One Stewart Street, Ottawa, K1N 6N5, Canada.
Int J Environ Health Res. 2005 Oct;15(5):347-60. doi: 10.1080/09603120500289119.
To assess whether meteorological conditions modify the relationship between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality, an examination of air pollution and human mortality associations (ecologic) using hybrid spatial synoptic classification procedures was conducted. Concentrations of air pollutants and human mortality from all non-accidental and cardiorespiratory causes were examined according to typical winter and summer synoptic climatologies in Toronto, Canada, between 1981 and 1999. Air masses were derived using a hybrid spatial synoptic classification procedure associating each day over the 19-year period with one of six different typical weather types, or a transition between two weather types. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to assess the risk of mortality from air pollution within specific air mass type subsets. Mortality follows a distinct seasonal pattern with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Average air pollution concentrations were similar in both seasons with the exception of elevated sulfur dioxide levels in winter and elevated ozone levels in summer. Subtle changes in meteorological composition can alter the strength of pollutant associations with health outcomes, especially in the summer season. Although there does not appear to be any systematic patterning of modification, variation in pollutant concentrations seems dependent on the type of synoptic category present.
为评估气象条件是否会改变短期暴露于环境空气污染与死亡率之间的关系，研究人员采用混合空间天气分类程序对空气污染与人类死亡率关联（生态学）进行了考察。根据1981年至1999年间加拿大多伦多典型的冬季和夏季天气气候情况，对所有非意外和心肺疾病导致的空气污染物浓度及人类死亡率进行了研究。利用混合空间天气分类程序得出气团，该程序将19年期间的每一天与六种不同典型天气类型之一或两种天气类型之间的过渡类型相关联。采用广义线性模型（GLM）评估特定气团类型子集中空气污染导致的死亡风险。死亡率呈现出明显的季节性模式，冬季最高，夏季最低。除冬季二氧化硫水平升高和夏季臭氧水平升高外，两个季节的平均空气污染浓度相似。气象构成的细微变化会改变污染物与健康结果之间关联的强度，尤其是在夏季。虽然似乎不存在任何系统性的修正模式，但污染物浓度的变化似乎取决于当前天气类型的类别。
