Konshin O V
Nuclear Physics Department, Byelorussian State University, Minsk.
Health Phys. 1992 Sep;63(3):307-15. doi: 10.1097/00004032-199209000-00006.
On the basis of experimental data on the fallout of 137Cs from the Chernobyl accident, a statistical analysis was made of possible values of the coefficients of transfer via the soil-grass pathway. Model calculations of the possible radionuclide concentration in milk are performed by the Monte Carlo method using the probability distribution function obtained. It is shown that not only our limited knowledge and the possible diversity of the external conditions, but also the very nature of the phenomenon under consideration, make it desirable to switch from a deterministic to a stochastic formulation of the model. The fact that the dependence of the soil-to-grass radionuclide transfer coefficients on the initial concentration in soil might be non-linear in character is an indication of the limitation of the conventional linear model.
根据切尔诺贝利事故中137Cs沉降的实验数据，对通过土壤 - 草途径的转移系数的可能值进行了统计分析。利用所获得的概率分布函数，通过蒙特卡罗方法对牛奶中可能的放射性核素浓度进行了模型计算。结果表明，不仅我们有限的知识和外部条件可能的多样性，而且所考虑现象的本质，都使得从确定性模型转向随机模型是可取的。土壤到草的放射性核素转移系数对土壤初始浓度的依赖性可能是非线性的，这一事实表明传统线性模型存在局限性。
