Jones Andrew P, Homer Jack B, Murphy Dara L, Essien Joyce D K, Milstein Bobby, Seville Donald A
Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mail Stop K-10, 4770 Buford Hwy, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2006 Mar;96(3):488-94. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.063529. Epub 2006 Jan 31.
Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.
糖尿病转化部门的健康规划者以及疾病控制与预防中心国家慢性病预防与健康促进中心的其他人员，运用系统动力学模拟模型，以更好地理解糖尿病的人群动态，并探索其对公共卫生策略的影响。开发了一个模型来解释自1980年以来糖尿病的增长情况，并描绘到2050年可能出现的未来趋势。模型模拟结果显示了糖尿病患者群体的特征动态，包括因糖尿病控制导致的糖尿病患病率意外上升、仅靠糖尿病控制措施从长期来看无法降低糖尿病相关死亡人数，以及一级预防措施与糖尿病结果的下游改善之间存在显著延迟。
