Paulo M J, van der Voet H, Wood J C, Marion G R, van Klaveren J D
Biometris, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 100, 6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Food Chem Toxicol. 2006 Jul;44(7):994-1005. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2005.12.003. Epub 2006 Feb 2.
A recently published multivariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT) model is applied to the estimation of population risks associated with dietary intake of pesticides. The objective is to quantify the acute risk of pesticide intake above a threshold and relate it to the consumption of specific primary food products. As an example daily intakes of a pesticide from three foods are considered. The method models and extrapolates simultaneous intakes of pesticide, and estimates probability of exceeding unobserved large intakes. Multivariate analysis was helpful in identifying whether the avoidance of certain food combinations would reduce the likelihood of exceeding a threshold. We argue that the presented method can be an important contribution to exposure assessment studies.
最近发表的一个多元极值理论（EVT）模型被应用于评估与农药膳食摄入相关的人群风险。目的是量化超过阈值的农药摄入的急性风险，并将其与特定主要食品的消费联系起来。作为一个例子，考虑了三种食物中一种农药的每日摄入量。该方法对农药的同时摄入量进行建模和外推，并估计超过未观察到的大量摄入量的概率。多变量分析有助于确定避免某些食物组合是否会降低超过阈值的可能性。我们认为，所提出的方法可为暴露评估研究做出重要贡献。
