Ball Frank, Becker Niels G
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
Math Biosci. 2006 Apr;200(2):170-87. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.12.024. Epub 2006 Feb 21.
The effectiveness of a vaccination strategy to control transmission of an infectious disease depends on the way vaccine doses are distributed to individuals in a community of households. Here we show that this dependence is more complicated when acquisition and severity of illness are determined by the size of the infecting dose, as is thought to be the case for measles and varicella. Two alternative formulations for the way vaccination changes an individual's susceptibility and infectivity show that vaccination coverage, the nature of the vaccine response and the distribution of household size also have a big impact on which strategy is more effective. These judgements are made by comparing the post-vaccination reproduction numbers corresponding to different vaccination strategies.
一种控制传染病传播的疫苗接种策略的有效性取决于疫苗剂量在家庭社区中的个体间分配方式。我们在此表明,当感染剂量的大小决定疾病的感染和严重程度时(麻疹和水痘被认为就是这种情况),这种依赖性会更加复杂。关于疫苗接种改变个体易感性和传染性方式的两种替代公式表明,疫苗接种覆盖率、疫苗反应的性质以及家庭规模分布,对于哪种策略更有效也有很大影响。这些判断是通过比较不同疫苗接种策略对应的接种后繁殖数得出的。