Aldis G K, Roberts M G
School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of NSW at ADFA, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
Math Biosci. 2005 May;195(1):1-22. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.01.006.
An integral equation model of a smallpox epidemic is proposed. The model structures the incidence of infection among the household, the workplace, the wider community and a health-care facility; and incorporates a finite incubation period and plausible infectivity functions. Linearisation of the model is appropriate for small epidemics, and enables analytic expressions to be derived for the basic reproduction number and the size of the epidemic. The effects of control interventions (vaccination, isolation, quarantine and public education) are explored for a smallpox epidemic following an imported case. It is found that the rapid identification and isolation of cases, the quarantine of affected households and a public education campaign to reduce contact would be capable of bringing an epidemic under control. This could be used in conjunction with the vaccination of healthcare workers and contacts. Our results suggest that prior mass vaccination would be an inefficient method of containing an outbreak.
提出了一种天花流行的积分方程模型。该模型构建了家庭、工作场所、更广泛社区和医疗保健机构中感染发生率的结构；并纳入了有限的潜伏期和合理的传染性函数。该模型的线性化适用于小规模疫情，并能够推导出基本再生数和疫情规模的解析表达式。针对输入病例后的天花疫情，探讨了控制干预措施（疫苗接种、隔离、检疫和公众教育）的效果。研究发现，迅速识别和隔离病例、对受影响家庭进行检疫以及开展减少接触的公众教育活动能够控制疫情。这可以与医护人员和接触者的疫苗接种相结合使用。我们的结果表明，事先进行大规模疫苗接种将是控制疫情爆发的低效方法。
