Gao Linda, Hethcote Herbert
Department of Mathematics, North Central College, Naperville, IL 60540-7063, USA.
Math Biosci. 2006 Aug;202(2):371-85. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.02.005. Epub 2006 Apr 17.
Many infants whose mothers have rubella infections during their first trimester of pregnancy have birth defects called congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). China does not routinely vaccinate against rubella in the public sector, but may need to start as its 'one child per couple' policy changes the population age distribution and the dynamics of rubella epidemiology, so that the incidence of rubella in pregnant women increases. Computer simulations with demographic transitions and rubella transmission dynamics predict that, with no or limited rubella vaccination, CRS incidence in China in the 30 years after 2020 will be more than twice the level in 2005. Comparisons of rubella vaccination strategies using computer simulations show that routine vaccination of over 80% of 1-year-old children would be effective in reducing total CRS cases in 2005-2051 and eliminating rubella in China by 2051. Routine immunizations at higher levels and the addition of early mass vaccinations of 2-14-year-old children and women of childbearing ages would further reduce total CRS cases and speed up the elimination of rubella.
许多母亲在孕期头三个月感染风疹的婴儿会出现称为先天性风疹综合征（CRS）的出生缺陷。中国公共部门目前没有常规的风疹疫苗接种，但随着“一对夫妇只生一个孩子”政策改变了人口年龄分布和风疹流行病学动态，导致孕妇风疹发病率上升，中国可能需要开始接种。结合人口转变和风疹传播动态的计算机模拟预测，若不接种或仅进行有限的风疹疫苗接种，2020年后30年中国的先天性风疹综合征发病率将是2005年水平的两倍多。利用计算机模拟对风疹疫苗接种策略进行比较表明，对80%以上的1岁儿童进行常规接种，将有效减少2005年至2051年期间先天性风疹综合征的总病例数，并在2051年消除中国的风疹。更高水平的常规免疫以及对2至14岁儿童和育龄妇女增加早期大规模接种，将进一步减少先天性风疹综合征的总病例数，并加速风疹的消除。
