Brook Barry W, Traill Lochran W, Bradshaw Corey J A
Ecol Lett. 2006 Apr;9(4):375-82. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00883.x.
Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.
理论和实证研究表明，物种一旦在规模和地理分布范围上缩小，面临的灭绝风险会大幅上升。我们基于长期时间序列数据和模型平均化的种群动态模拟，预测了1198个物种的最小存活种群规模（MVP）。MVP的中位数估计为1377个个体（100年内持续存在的概率为90%），但总体分布范围广且呈强烈正偏态。通常被认为与灭绝风险相关的因素无法预测MVP，但能够成功预测世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）名录收录的概率。MVP与当地环境变化的关联最为紧密，而非物种的内在生态和生活史特征。此外，物种间MVP的巨大差异与那些通过导致曾经丰富的物种数量下降从而引发全球生物多样性危机的人为威胁无关（或至少与之相比微不足道）。
