Smith Derek J
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Science. 2006 Apr 21;312(5772):392-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1122665.
The threat of pandemic human influenza looms as we survey the ongoing avian influenza pandemic and wonder if and when it will jump species. What are the risks and how can we plan? The nub of the problem lies in the inherent variability of the virus, which makes prediction difficult. However, it is not impossible; mathematical models can help determine and quantify critical parameters and thresholds in the relationships of those parameters, even if the relationships are nonlinear and obscure to simple reasoning. Mathematical models can derive estimates for the levels of drug stockpiles needed to buy time, how and when to modify vaccines, whom to target with vaccines and drugs, and when to enforce quarantine measures. Regardless, the models used for pandemic planning must be tested, and for this we must continue to gather data, not just for exceptional scenarios but also for seasonal influenza.
在审视当前的禽流感大流行并思考它是否以及何时会跨物种传播时，全球大流行性流感的威胁隐约显现。风险有哪些？我们该如何制定计划？问题的关键在于病毒固有的变异性，这使得预测变得困难。然而，这并非不可能；数学模型有助于确定和量化关键参数以及这些参数之间关系的阈值，即便这些关系是非线性的且难以通过简单推理理解。数学模型可以推算出争取时间所需的药物储备水平、如何以及何时修改疫苗、疫苗和药物的目标人群以及何时实施隔离措施。无论如何，用于大流行规划的模型必须经过检验，为此我们必须持续收集数据，不仅要针对特殊情况，也要针对季节性流感收集数据。
