Ling Min-Pei, Liao Chung-Min, Tsai Jeng-Wei, Chen Bo-Ching
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 10617, Republic of China.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2005 Jan;1(1):40-54. doi: 10.1897/ieam_2004a-004.1.
A biologically based risk-assessment model of arsenic (As) exposure evaluated farmed tilapia (Orechromis mossambicus) and human health during tilapia consumption in an area of southwestern Taiwan where blackfoot disease (BFD) occurs. The risk assessment addressed exposures to city residents who lived in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, as well as subsistence fishers living in the BFD area who consumed tilapia. The models implemented included a physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic (PBTK/TD) model to account for As exposure and dose-response profiles in tilapia and a human health exposure/risk model that accounts for target lifetime risk (TR) and hazard quotient (HQ) for humans consuming farmed tilapia. Results demonstrated that 90th percentiles of TR ranged from 1.53 x 10(-8) to 1.62 x 10(-6) for city residents with farmed tilapia consumption rates of 0.41 to 1.37 g/d. The 90th percentiles ranged from 2.07 x 10(-6) to 7.89 x 10(-5) for subsistence fishers in the BFD area with farmed tilapia consumption rates of 16.80 to 59.15 g/d. All predicted 90th percentiles of HQ were less than 1 for city residents and subsistence fishers in the BFD area, indicating small contributions from farmed tilapia consumption. Critical variables included whole-fish body weight, water As content, and As level in tilapia muscle. Although bioaccumulation of As seems unlikely to result in toxicity to farmed tilapia and humans consuming tilapia, the theoretical human health risks in the BFD area are alarming, using a probabilistic risk-assessment model based on conservative assumptions.
一种基于生物学的砷（As）暴露风险评估模型，在台湾西南部发生黑脚病（BFD）的地区，评估了养殖罗非鱼（莫桑比克罗非鱼）以及食用罗非鱼期间的人体健康状况。该风险评估针对居住在台北、台中、高雄的城市居民，以及居住在BFD地区以罗非鱼为食的自给渔民。所实施的模型包括一个基于生理学的毒代动力学和毒效动力学（PBTK/TD）模型，用于说明罗非鱼中的As暴露和剂量反应情况，以及一个人体健康暴露/风险模型，用于说明食用养殖罗非鱼的人的目标终生风险（TR）和危害商数（HQ）。结果表明，对于养殖罗非鱼消费率为0.41至1.37克/天的城市居民，TR的第90百分位数范围为1.53×10^(-8)至1.62×10^(-6)。对于养殖罗非鱼消费率为16.80至59.15克/天的BFD地区自给渔民，第90百分位数范围为2.07×10^(-6)至7.89×10^(-5)。对于城市居民和BFD地区的自给渔民，所有预测的HQ第90百分位数均小于1，表明养殖罗非鱼消费的贡献较小。关键变量包括全鱼体重、水中As含量和罗非鱼肌肉中的As水平。尽管As的生物累积似乎不太可能对养殖罗非鱼和食用罗非鱼的人类产生毒性，但基于保守假设使用概率风险评估模型，BFD地区的理论人体健康风险令人担忧。
