A quantitative assessment of the risk of exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy via meat-and-bone meal in Japan.

The feeding of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) derived from cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a major source of BSE infection. The risks of BSE infection via MBM in Japan were examined quantitatively to estimate infectivity to cattle via MBM derived from a single clinically infected animal being rendered. Three routes of exposure were modeled: (i) feeding cattle concentrates containing MBM as an ingredient, (ii) feeding cattle concentrates contaminated with MBM from non-ruminant feed at feed plants and (iii) directly feeding MBM in supplemental form to cattle on farms. The effectiveness of measures designed to restrict the feeding of ruminants with ruminant MBM (feed restriction) as well as differences in the risk of exposure among regions were examined using the model. The model revealed that the median total infectivity fed to dairy cattle via MBM derived from one infected animal was approximately 0.49 cattle oral ID(50) (5th percentile=0.43ID(50), 95th percentile=0.54ID(50)). This value was reduced by 55% after the addition of MBM to cattle concentrates was restricted in 1996. The risk of exposure in dairy cattle was twice that in beef cattle. Comparisons of regional differences in exposure risk indicated that the risk was highest in a region where 14 of the 20 BSE cases reported to date were born. Our model suggested that the routes of exposure via MBM were unlikely to result in increased propagation of BSE in Japan. Furthermore, despite some regional variation, the risk of exposure declined further after the feed restriction was imposed in 1996.