Cardis Elisabeth, Howe Geoffrey, Ron Elaine, Bebeshko Vladimir, Bogdanova Tetyana, Bouville Andre, Carr Zhanat, Chumak Vadim, Davis Scott, Demidchik Yuryi, Drozdovitch Vladimir, Gentner Norman, Gudzenko Natalya, Hatch Maureen, Ivanov Victor, Jacob Peter, Kapitonova Eleonora, Kenigsberg Yakov, Kesminiene Ausrele, Kopecky Kenneth J, Kryuchkov Victor, Loos Anja, Pinchera Aldo, Reiners Christoph, Repacholi Michael, Shibata Yoshisada, Shore Roy E, Thomas Gerry, Tirmarche Margot, Yamashita Shunichi, Zvonova Irina
International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France.
J Radiol Prot. 2006 Jun;26(2):127-40. doi: 10.1088/0952-4746/26/2/001. Epub 2006 Apr 24.
26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.
2006年4月26日是切尔诺贝利事故20周年纪念日。在此之际，世界卫生组织（WHO）在联合国切尔诺贝利论坛倡议下，召集了一个专家组来评估切尔诺贝利事故对健康的影响。本文总结了与癌症相关的研究结果。在受污染最严重地区，童年和青少年时期接触放射性碘的人群中，甲状腺癌发病率急剧上升。碘缺乏可能增加了接触放射性碘后患甲状腺癌的风险，而在接触后的数年中持续稳定补充碘可能会降低这种风险。尽管有报告称其他癌症的发病率有所上升，但其中大部分上升似乎是由其他因素导致的，包括登记、报告和诊断水平的提高。然而，相关研究较少，且存在方法学上的局限性。此外，由于大多数与辐射相关的实体癌在接触辐射数十年后才会发生，而事故发生至今仅过了20年，现在评估事故的全部辐射影响还为时过早。除了年轻人甲状腺癌发病率大幅上升外，目前尚无明确证据表明癌症风险因辐射而增加。然而，这并不意味着实际上没有增加：根据其他遭受电离辐射人群的经验，即使是在接受低至中等剂量辐射的情况下，预计癌症相对风险也会有小幅上升。尽管预计流行病学研究难以识别这种风险，但鉴于受辐射个体数量众多，未来仍可能导致大量与辐射相关的癌症病例。
