Malignant tumors in two ancient populations: An approach to historical tumor epidemiology.

The actual increase in the rate of malignant tumors has been ascribed to a higher life expectancy and the influence of various environmental factors. Herein, we present data on the frequency of malignant tumors in paleopathologically well-defined historic populations. Thereby, we looked for malignant growth affecting the skeleton in three study populations of 905 individuals that have been excavated from the necropoles of Thebes-West and Abydos, Upper Egypt covering the time period between 3200 and 500 BC and 2547 individuals that have been buried in a Southern German ossuary dating from between AD 1400 and 1800. The tissue preservation of both the Egyptian and Southern German material was excellent. All available specimens were subjected to a very careful macroscopic examination; isolated findings were also radiologically investigated. In parallel, anthropological data, such as gender and age at death, were recorded. We identified 5 cases of malignant tumors affecting the skeleton in the Egyptian material and 13 cases affecting the skeletal material from Southern Germany. In most instances, multiple osteolytic lesions with slight osteoblastic reaction are strongly suggestive for metastatic carcinoma. Few cases with poorly reactive osteolyses were most compatible with plasmacytoma. Relative tumor frequencies on an age- and sex-adjusted population basis (using a mathematic model of skeletal involvement of malignant tumors in a well-defined English study population from AD 1901 to 1905) indicated that the tumor rates were not statistically different between ancient Egyptian, the historical Southern German and the recent English reference population. These observations indicate that malignant tumors were present in spatially and temporarily different populations over the last 4000 years with an age- and gender-adjusted frequency not different from Western industrial populations of c. 100 years ago. Therefore, we conclude that the current rise in tumor frequencies in present populations is much more related to the higher life expectancy than primary environmental or genetic factors.