Joshi M, Seidel-Morgenstern A, Kremling A
Institut für Verfahrenstechnik, Otto-von-Guericke UniversitätMagdeburg, Universitätsplatz 2, Magdeburg, Germany.
Metab Eng. 2006 Sep;8(5):447-55. doi: 10.1016/j.ymben.2006.04.003. Epub 2006 May 6.
A quantitative description of dynamical systems requires the estimation of uncertain kinetic parameters and an analysis of their precision. A method frequently used to describe the confidence intervals of estimated parameters is based on the Fisher-Information-Matrix. The application of this traditional method has two important shortcomings: (i) it gives only lower bounds for the variance of a parameter if the solution of the underlying model equations is non-linear in parameters. (ii) The resulting confidence interval is symmetric with respect to the estimated parameter. Here, we show that by applying the bootstrap method a better approximation of (possibly) asymmetric confidence intervals for parameters could be obtained. In contrast to previous applications devoted to non-parametric problems, a dynamical model describing a bio-chemical network is used to evaluate the method.
对动力系统进行定量描述需要估计不确定的动力学参数并分析其精度。一种常用于描述估计参数置信区间的方法是基于费希尔信息矩阵。这种传统方法的应用有两个重要缺点：（i）如果基础模型方程的解在参数上是非线性的，它只能给出参数方差的下限。（ii）所得的置信区间关于估计参数是对称的。在这里，我们表明通过应用自助法可以获得（可能）不对称的参数置信区间的更好近似。与先前致力于非参数问题的应用不同，我们使用一个描述生化网络的动力学模型来评估该方法。
