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“也许不知道所有事情会更好。”

"Perhaps it would be better not to know everything.".

机构信息

University of Kansas.

出版信息

J Appl Behav Anal. 1977 Spring;10(1):167-72. doi: 10.1901/jaba.1977.10-167.

DOI:10.1901/jaba.1977.10-167
PMID:16795545
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1311163/
Abstract

The advent of statistical methods for evaluating the data of individual-subject designs invites a comparison of the usual research tactics of the group-design paradigm and the individual-subject-design paradigm. That comparison can hinge on the concept of assigning probabilities of Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Individual-subject designs are usually interpreted with implicit, very low probabilities of Type 1 errors, and correspondingly high probabilities of Type 1 errors, and correspondingly high probabilities of Type 2 errors. Group designs are usually interpreted with explicit, moderately low probabilities of Type 1 errors, and therefore with not such high probabilities of Type 2 errors as in the other paradigm. This difference may seem to be a minor one, considered in terms of centiles on a probability scale. However, when it is interpreted in terms of the substantive kinds of results likely to be produced by each paradigm, it appears that the individual-subject-design paradigm is more likely to contribute to the development of a technology of behavior, and it is suggested that this orientation should not be abandoned.

摘要

个体设计数据的统计方法的出现,使得个体设计范式和群组设计范式的常用研究策略的比较成为可能。这种比较可能取决于分配 1 类和 2 类错误概率的概念。个体设计通常被解释为具有隐含的、非常低的 1 类错误概率,以及相应的高 2 类错误概率。群组设计通常被解释为具有明确的、中等低的 1 类错误概率,因此与另一种范式相比,2 类错误的概率不会那么高。从概率尺度上的百分位数来看,这种差异似乎很小。然而,当从每个范式可能产生的实质性结果的角度来解释时,个体设计范式似乎更有可能有助于行为技术的发展,因此建议不要放弃这种方向。

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本文引用的文献

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J Appl Behav Anal. 1972 Summer;5(2):193-8. doi: 10.1901/jaba.1972.5-193.