Strube Michael J
Department of Psychology, Box 1125, One Brookings Drive, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, USA.
Behav Res Methods. 2006 Feb;38(1):24-7. doi: 10.3758/bf03192746.
The ease with which data can be collected and analyzed via personal computer makes it potentially attractive to "peek" at the data before a target sample size is achieved. This tactic might seem appealing because data collection could be stopped early, which would save valuable resources, if a peek revealed a significant effect. Unfortunately, such data snooping comes with a cost. When the null hypothesis is true, the Type I error rate is inflated, sometimes quite substantially. If the null hypothesis is false, premature significance testing leads to inflated estimates of power and effect size. This program provides simulation results for a wide variety of premature and repeated null hypothesis testing scenarios. It gives researchers the ability to know in advance the consequences of data peeking so that appropriate corrective action can be taken.
通过个人电脑收集和分析数据的便捷性使得在达到目标样本量之前“窥探”数据具有潜在吸引力。这种策略可能看起来很有吸引力,因为如果窥探发现显著效应,数据收集可以提前停止,从而节省宝贵的资源。不幸的是,这种数据窥探是有代价的。当原假设为真时,第一类错误率会膨胀,有时膨胀幅度相当大。如果原假设为假,过早的显著性检验会导致功效和效应大小的估计值膨胀。该程序提供了各种过早和重复的原假设检验场景的模拟结果。它使研究人员能够提前了解数据窥探的后果,以便采取适当的纠正措施。