航空承运人事故中的飞行员失误：年龄有影响吗？

Li Guohua, Grabowski Jurek G, Baker Susan P, Rebok George W

Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.

Aviat Space Environ Med. 2006 Jul;77(7):737-41.

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between pilot age and safety performance has been the subject of research and controversy since the "Age 60 Rule" became effective in 1960. This study aimed to examine age-related differences in the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air carrier accidents.

METHODS

Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for accidents involving Part 121 operations in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Accident circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests.

RESULTS

Of the 558 air carrier accidents studied, 25% resulted from turbulence, 21% from mechanical failure, 16% from taxiing events, 13% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, and 25% from other causes. Accidents involving older pilots were more likely to be caused by turbulence, whereas accidents involving younger pilots were more likely to be taxiing events. Pilot error was a contributing factor in 34%, 38%, 35%, and 34% of the accidents involving pilots ages 25-34 yr, 35-44 yr, 45-54 yr, and 55-59 yr, respectively (p = 0.87). The patterns of pilot error were similar across age groups. Overall, 26% of the pilot errors identified were inattentiveness, 22% flawed decisions, 22% mishandled aircraft kinetics, and 11% poor crew interactions.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air carrier accidents do not seem to change with pilot age. The lack of association between pilot age and error may be due to the "safe worker effect" resulting from the rigorous selection processes and certification standards for professional pilots.

引言

自1960年“60岁规则”生效以来，飞行员年龄与安全表现之间的关系一直是研究和争议的主题。本研究旨在探讨航空承运人事故中飞行员失误的发生率和模式与年龄的相关差异。

方法

回顾了美国国家运输安全委员会1983年至2002年间涉及第121部运营事故的调查报告，以确定飞行员失误及其他促成因素。使用卡方检验分析事故情况以及飞行员失误的存在和类型与飞行员年龄的关系。

结果

在研究的558起航空承运人事故中，25%是由湍流导致，21%是由机械故障导致，16%是由滑行事件导致，13%是由着陆或起飞时失去控制导致，25%是由其他原因导致。涉及年长飞行员的事故更有可能由湍流引起，而涉及年轻飞行员的事故更有可能是滑行事件。在涉及25 - 34岁、35 - 44岁、45 - 54岁和55 - 59岁飞行员的事故中，飞行员失误分别占34%、38%、35%和34%（p = 0.87）。各年龄组的飞行员失误模式相似。总体而言，所确定的飞行员失误中，26%是注意力不集中，22%是决策失误，22%是对飞机动力学操作不当，11%是机组人员互动不良。