Charles M W
School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
J Radiol Prot. 2006 Sep;26(3):325-9. doi: 10.1088/0952-4746/26/3/N02. Epub 2006 Aug 22.
Can the carcinogenic risks of radiation that are observed at high doses be extrapolated to low doses? This question has been debated through the whole professional life of the author--now nearing four decades. In its extreme form the question relates to a particular hypothesis (LNT) used widely by the international community for radiological protection applications. The linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis propounds that the extrapolation is linear and that it extends down to zero dose. The debate on the validity of LNT has increased dramatically in recent years. This is in no small part due to concern that exaggerated risks at low doses leads to undue amounts of societal resources being used to reduce man-made human exposure and because of the related growing public aversion to diagnostic and therapeutic medical exposures. The debate appears to be entering a new phase. There is a growing realisation of the limitations of fundamental data and the scientific approach to address this question at low doses. There also appears to be an increasing awareness that the assumptions necessary for a workable and acceptable system of radiological protection at low doses must necessarily be based on considerable pragmatism. Recent developments are reviewed and a historical perspective is given on the general nature of controversies in radiation protection over the years. All the protagonists in the debate will at the end of the day probably be able to claim that they were right!
高剂量辐射的致癌风险能否外推至低剂量?这个问题在作者的整个职业生涯中——如今已近四十年——一直备受争议。该问题的极端形式涉及国际社会在辐射防护应用中广泛使用的一个特定假设(线性无阈假设,LNT)。线性无阈(LNT)假设主张这种外推是线性的,并且可以延伸至零剂量。近年来,关于LNT有效性的争论急剧增加。这在很大程度上是由于担心低剂量下被夸大的风险会导致社会资源被过度用于减少人为的人体暴露,还因为公众对诊断性和治疗性医疗照射的反感日益增加。这场争论似乎正在进入一个新阶段。人们越来越意识到基础数据的局限性以及在低剂量下解决这个问题的科学方法。似乎也越来越意识到,一个可行且可接受的低剂量辐射防护体系所必需的假设必然要基于相当程度的实用主义。本文回顾了近期的进展,并对多年来辐射防护领域争议的总体性质给出了历史视角。这场争论的所有参与者最终可能都能宣称自己是正确的!