Decomposed pairwise regression analysis of genetic and geographic distances reveals a metapopulation structure of stream-dwelling Dolly Varden charr.

Isolation by distance is usually tested by the correlation of genetic and geographic distances separating all pairwise populations' combinations. However, this method can be significantly biased by only a few highly diverged populations and lose the information of individual population. To detect outlier populations and investigate the relative strengths of gene flow and genetic drift for each population, we propose a decomposed pairwise regression analysis. This analysis was applied to the well-described one-dimensional stepping-stone system of stream-dwelling Dolly Varden charr (Salvelinus malma). When genetic and geographic distances were plotted for all pairs of 17 tributary populations, the correlation was significant but weak (r(2) = 0.184). Seven outlier populations were determined based on the systematic bias of the regression residuals, followed by Akaike's information criteria. The best model, 10 populations included, showed a strong pattern of isolation by distance (r(2) = 0.758), suggesting equilibrium between gene flow and genetic drift in these populations. Each outlier population was also analysed by plotting pairwise genetic and geographic distances against the 10 nonoutlier populations, and categorized into one of the three patterns: strong genetic drift, genetic drift with a limited gene flow and a high level of gene flow. These classifications were generally consistent with a priori predictions for each population (physical barrier, population size, anthropogenic impacts). Combined the genetic analysis with field observations, Dolly Varden in this river appeared to form a mainland-island or source-sink metapopulation structure. The generality of the method will merit many types of spatial genetic analyses.