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资源开发与跨区域增长轨迹:智利的非参数估计

Resource exploitation and cross-region growth trajectories: nonparametric estimates for Chile.

作者信息

Mainardi Stefano

机构信息

Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta, Chile.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2007 Oct;85(1):27-43. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.07.012. Epub 2006 Sep 25.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.07.012
PMID:16996676
Abstract

As a sector of primary concern for national development strategies, mining keeps stimulating an intensive debate in Chile, regarding its role for long-term growth. Partly drawn on theoretical contributions to growth and mineral resource accounting, this analysis assesses patterns of economic growth across Chilean regions. The theoretical and methodological rationale for focusing on weak sustainability, by testing convergence across regions in a distribution dynamics perspective, is first discussed. This is followed by a brief review of policy issues and previous empirical findings of concern to Chile's mining and regional growth. Panel data over the period 1960-2001 are analysed, with growth measured in terms of both income per capita as such, and sustainable measures of this variable. Kernel density and quantile regression estimates indicate persistent bimodal (if not possibly trimodal) distribution of nationally standardised regional incomes per capita, whereby conditions for cross-region convergence are matched only within the inner range of this distribution.

摘要

作为国家发展战略首要关注的领域,矿业在智利持续引发关于其对长期增长作用的激烈辩论。部分借鉴了对增长和矿产资源核算的理论贡献,本分析评估了智利各地区的经济增长模式。首先讨论了从分布动态角度检验地区间趋同以关注弱可持续性的理论和方法依据。随后简要回顾了与智利矿业和地区增长相关的政策问题及以往实证研究结果。分析了1960 - 2001年期间的面板数据,增长既用人均收入本身衡量,也用该变量的可持续指标衡量。核密度和分位数回归估计表明,全国标准化的人均地区收入存在持续的双峰(若不是可能的三峰)分布,据此跨地区趋同的条件仅在该分布的内部范围内得到满足。

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