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韩国首尔高温与死亡率背景下低收入老年人的脆弱性研究。

A vulnerability study of the low-income elderly in the context of high temperature and mortality in Seoul, Korea.

作者信息

Kim Youngmin, Joh Seunghun

机构信息

Graduate School of Environmental Studies Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-dong, Kwanak-Ku, Seoul 151-742, South Korea.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2006 Dec 1;371(1-3):82-8. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.08.014. Epub 2006 Sep 26.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

We investigated the impact of environmental high temperature on mortality in Seoul, Korea, and the consequences of high temperature-induced mortality with a focus on the low-income elderly.

METHODS

Changes in the risk of death by age and income were estimated by a 1 degrees C increase in temperature using a generalized additive model adjusting for non-temperature related factors: time trends, seasonality, and air pollution. The study covered the years of 2000, 2001, and 2002.

RESULTS

We found that income and age were potential factors in high-temperature-induced excess mortality. Evidences to support these results are as follows: first, regarding the effect of an economic factor in the association between mortality and high temperature, the study shows that the mortality rate of the low-income group is higher, by as much as 1.3- to 1.7-fold, than that of the general population. Second, taking age into consideration, the mortality of low-income elderly people is 1.5-fold higher than that of the whole low-income group. The combined effect of income and age on mortality is estimated as 2.3-fold higher than that of the general population. But the results of the low-income and elderly group were not statistically significant due to wide standard deviation.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between high-temperature-induced excess mortality, income, and age suggests the need for a public health message, yet many results were not statistically significant: preventive and health care interventions need to be administered to the elderly and low-income group during periods of high temperature.

摘要

引言

我们调查了韩国首尔环境高温对死亡率的影响,以及高温导致的死亡后果,重点关注低收入老年人。

方法

使用广义相加模型,在调整了与温度无关的因素(时间趋势、季节性和空气污染)后,估计温度每升高1摄氏度时不同年龄和收入人群的死亡风险变化。该研究涵盖了2000年、2001年和2002年。

结果

我们发现收入和年龄是高温导致超额死亡的潜在因素。支持这些结果的证据如下:第一,关于经济因素在死亡率与高温关联中的作用,研究表明低收入群体的死亡率比普通人群高1.3至1.7倍。第二,考虑到年龄因素,低收入老年人的死亡率比整个低收入群体高1.5倍。收入和年龄对死亡率的综合影响估计比普通人群高2.3倍。但由于标准差较大,低收入老年人组的结果在统计学上不显著。

结论

高温导致的超额死亡与收入和年龄之间的关系表明有必要发布公共卫生信息,但许多结果在统计学上并不显著:在高温期间,需要对老年人和低收入群体采取预防和医疗保健干预措施。

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