Fryback Dennis G, Stout Natasha K, Rosenberg Marjorie A, Trentham-Dietz Amy, Kuruchittham Vipat, Remington Patrick L
Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726, USA.
J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2006(36):37-47. doi: 10.1093/jncimonographs/lgj007.
The Wisconsin Breast Cancer Epidemiology Simulation Model is a discrete-event, stochastic simulation model using a systems-science modeling approach to replicate breast cancer incidence and mortality in the U.S. population from 1975 to 2000. Four interacting processes are modeled over time: (1) natural history of breast cancer, (2) breast cancer detection, (3) breast cancer treatment, and (4) competing cause mortality. These components form a complex interacting system simulating the lives of 2.95 million women (approximately 1/50 the U.S. population) from 1950 to 2000 in 6-month cycles. After a "burn in" of 25 years to stabilize prevalent occult cancers, the model outputs age-specific incidence rates by stage and age-specific mortality rates from 1975 to 2000. The model simulates occult as well as detected disease at the individual level and can be used to address "What if?" questions about effectiveness of screening and treatment protocols, as well as to estimate benefits to women of specific ages and screening histories.
威斯康星乳腺癌流行病学模拟模型是一种离散事件、随机模拟模型，采用系统科学建模方法来复制1975年至2000年美国人群中的乳腺癌发病率和死亡率。随着时间推移，对四个相互作用的过程进行建模：（1）乳腺癌的自然史，（2）乳腺癌检测，（3）乳腺癌治疗，以及（4）竞争死因死亡率。这些组成部分形成一个复杂的相互作用系统，以6个月为周期模拟了1950年至2000年295万女性（约占美国人口的1/50）的生活。在经过25年的“磨合”以稳定隐匿性癌症的患病率后，该模型输出1975年至2000年按阶段划分的年龄特异性发病率和年龄特异性死亡率。该模型在个体层面模拟隐匿性疾病以及已检测出的疾病，可用于解答关于筛查和治疗方案有效性的“如果……会怎样？”问题，还可用于估计特定年龄和筛查史女性的受益情况。
