Computational prediction of the chromosome-damaging potential of chemicals.

We report on the generation of computer-based models for the prediction of the chromosome-damaging potential of chemicals as assessed in the in vitro chromosome aberration (CA) test. On the basis of publicly available CA-test results of more than 650 chemical substances, half of which are drug-like compounds, we generated two different computational models. The first model was realized using the (Q)SAR tool MCASE. Results obtained with this model indicate a limited performance (53%) for the assessment of a chromosome-damaging potential (sensitivity), whereas CA-test negative compounds were correctly predicted with a specificity of 75%. The low sensitivity of this model might be explained by the fact that the underlying 2D-structural descriptors only describe part of the molecular mechanism leading to the induction of chromosome aberrations, that is, direct drug-DNA interactions. The second model was constructed with a more sophisticated machine learning approach and generated a classification model based on 14 molecular descriptors, which were obtained after feature selection. The performance of this model was superior to the MCASE model, primarily because of an improved sensitivity, suggesting that the more complex molecular descriptors in combination with statistical learning approaches are better suited to model the complex nature of mechanisms leading to a positive effect in the CA-test. An analysis of misclassified pharmaceuticals by this model showed that a large part of the false-negative predicted compounds were uniquely positive in the CA-test but lacked a genotoxic potential in other mutagenicity tests of the regulatory testing battery, suggesting that biologically nonsignificant mechanisms could be responsible for the observed positive CA-test result. Since such mechanisms are not amenable to modeling approaches it is suggested that a positive prediction made by the model reflects a biologically significant genotoxic potential. An integration of the machine-learning model as a screening tool in early discovery phases of drug development is proposed.