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[西班牙内战时期的饥荒与冠心病死亡率:基于巴克假说的视角]

[Famine in the Spanish civil war and mortality from coronary heart disease: a perspective from Barker's hypothesis].

作者信息

González Zapata Laura Inés, Alvarez-Dardet Díaz Carlos, Nolasco Bonmatí Andreu, Pina Romero José Aurelio, Medrano María José

机构信息

Escuela de Nutrición y Dietética, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín-Colombia.

出版信息

Gac Sanit. 2006 Sep-Oct;20(5):360-7. doi: 10.1157/13093203.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the famine experienced during the Spanish civil war and immediate postwar period influenced mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in persons born in this period, following the lines of Barker's hypothesis on fetal programming of chronic diseases in adult life.

METHODS

Using CHD mortality data by age and sex for 1990-2002, annual and age-adjusted rates were calculated by the direct method. Poisson regressions were used to estimate period, age and cohort effects by year of birth (1918-1957).

RESULTS

During the study period, CHD mortality fell by a yearly average of -2.3% in both sexes and in all ages yearly. This trend was influenced by both cohort and period effects (p<0.001); an increased risk was observed for both sexes and in all ages in the deaths corresponding to persons born during the war and postwar years when the famine was most intense (1937, 1940, 1943 and 1945).

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained by studying yearly CHD mortality are compatible with those expected by Barker's hypothesis of the effect of nutritional stress during pregnancy. In addition to its human, economic and political costs, the Spanish civil war could also have had negative consequences for the health of persons born in this period.

摘要

目的

按照巴克关于成人期慢性病胎儿编程的假说,确定西班牙内战及战后初期经历的饥荒是否影响了这一时期出生人群的冠心病(CHD)死亡率。

方法

利用1990 - 2002年按年龄和性别划分的冠心病死亡率数据,采用直接法计算年度和年龄调整率。使用泊松回归按出生年份(1918 - 1957年)估计时期、年龄和队列效应。

结果

在研究期间,冠心病死亡率在所有年龄段的男性和女性中每年平均下降2.3%。这一趋势受队列和时期效应的影响(p<0.001);在战争期间及战后饥荒最严重的年份(1937年、1940年、1943年和1945年)出生人群的死亡中,所有年龄段的男性和女性都观察到风险增加。

结论

通过研究冠心病年度死亡率获得的结果与巴克关于孕期营养应激影响的假说预期相符。西班牙内战除了造成人力、经济和政治代价外,还可能对这一时期出生人群的健康产生负面影响。

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