Russo J Edward, Carlson Kurt A, Meloy Margaret G
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2006 Oct;17(10):899-904. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01800.x.
We show how decision makers can be induced to choose a personally inferior alternative, a strong violation of rational decision making. First, the inferior alternative is installed as the leading option by starting with information that supports this alternative. Then, the decision maker uses the natural process of distorting new information to support whichever alternative is leading. This leader-supporting distortion overcomes the inherent advantages of the superior alternative. The end result is a tendency to choose the self-identified inferior alternative. We trace the choice process to reveal the amount of distortion and its influence on preference. Self-reported awareness of distortion to support the inferior alternative is not related to the amount of distortion. The absence of valid awareness suggests that the manipulation that produces this preference violation is unlikely to be detected and that the distortion is unlikely to be corrected by the decision maker. As expected, given the lack of awareness, final confidence is just as high when the inferior alternative is chosen as when the superior one is. The discussion considers how to prevent an adversary from manipulating one's decisions using this technique.
我们展示了决策者是如何被诱导去选择一个对其自身而言较差的选项的,这严重违背了理性决策。首先,通过从支持该较差选项的信息入手,将其设定为首要选项。然后,决策者利用扭曲新信息的自然过程来支持处于领先地位的任何一个选项。这种支持领先选项的扭曲克服了较好选项固有的优势。最终结果是倾向于选择自我认定的较差选项。我们追踪选择过程以揭示扭曲的程度及其对偏好的影响。自我报告的支持较差选项的扭曲意识与扭曲程度无关。缺乏有效的意识表明,产生这种偏好违背的操纵不太可能被察觉,而且决策者不太可能纠正这种扭曲。不出所料,鉴于缺乏意识,选择较差选项时的最终信心与选择较好选项时一样高。讨论考虑了如何防止对手利用这种技术操纵自己的决策。