Dhoray Shanta, Teelucksingh Sonja Sabita
Research and Policy Department, Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, The West Indies.
J Environ Manage. 2007 Oct;85(2):415-28. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.10.019. Epub 2006 Dec 13.
It is accepted that if fisheries resources are to remain renewable and able to sustain livelihoods, appropriate management practices must be implemented. Even while fisheries management grapples to resolve single-species issues, the biological and economic interactions among species mandate that to be effective, management techniques must be based on more interactive and aggregate-level analyses. In order to implement these techniques, the actual links, and the potential impact of these links, among the fisheries must be established. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis has the potential to play an increasingly important role in ecosystem modelling for fisheries management. This study uses VAR analysis to demonstrate the quantitative impact of certain ecosystem changes on the productivity of the carite, honey shrimp and croaker fisheries of the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad, in the particular context of the ecosystem dynamics of trophic linkages, bycatch and multispecies fisheries. Four VAR models are constructed to investigate the extent to which these factors affect the production of the selected fisheries, and to evaluate the management implications of these linkages. The empirical analysis is further evidence that, if sustainable management of fishery resources is to be achieved, management practices based on more multi-species, ecosystem approaches must replace the traditional, single-species management techniques.
人们普遍认为，如果渔业资源要保持可再生并能够维持生计，就必须实施适当的管理措施。即使渔业管理努力解决单一物种问题，但物种之间的生物和经济相互作用要求，为了有效，管理技术必须基于更具互动性和总体层面的分析。为了实施这些技术，必须确定渔业之间的实际联系以及这些联系的潜在影响。向量自回归（VAR）分析在用于渔业管理的生态系统建模中有可能发挥越来越重要的作用。本研究使用VAR分析来证明在营养联系、兼捕和多物种渔业的生态系统动态这一特定背景下，某些生态系统变化对特立尼达帕里亚湾的卡里特鱼、蜜虾和鲳鱼渔业生产力的定量影响。构建了四个VAR模型，以研究这些因素在多大程度上影响所选渔业的产量，并评估这些联系对管理的影响。实证分析进一步证明，如果要实现渔业资源的可持续管理，基于更多多物种、生态系统方法的管理措施必须取代传统的单一物种管理技术。
