De Lara M, Martinet V
Université Paris-Est, CERMICS, 77455 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2, France.
Math Biosci. 2009 Feb;217(2):118-24. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.11.003. Epub 2008 Nov 24.
Managing natural resources in a sustainable way is a hard task, due to uncertainties, dynamics and conflicting objectives (ecological, social, and economical). We propose a stochastic viability approach to address such problems. We consider a discrete-time control dynamical model with uncertainties, representing a bioeconomic system. The sustainability of this system is described by a set of constraints, defined in practice by indicators - namely, state, control and uncertainty functions - together with thresholds. This approach aims at identifying decision rules such that a set of constraints, representing various objectives, is respected with maximal probability. Under appropriate monotonicity properties of dynamics and constraints, having economic and biological content, we characterize an optimal feedback. The connection is made between this approach and the so-called Management Strategy Evaluation for fisheries. A numerical application to sustainable management of Bay of Biscay nephrops-hakes mixed fishery is given.
以可持续的方式管理自然资源是一项艰巨的任务，这是由于存在不确定性、动态变化以及相互冲突的目标（生态、社会和经济目标）。我们提出一种随机生存能力方法来解决此类问题。我们考虑一个具有不确定性的离散时间控制动态模型，它代表一个生物经济系统。该系统的可持续性由一组约束条件来描述，这些约束条件在实际中由指标——即状态、控制和不确定性函数——以及阈值来定义。这种方法旨在确定决策规则，以便以最大概率遵守一组代表各种目标的约束条件。在具有经济和生物学内涵的动态和约束条件的适当单调性性质下，我们刻画了一个最优反馈。我们建立了这种方法与所谓的渔业管理策略评估之间的联系。给出了对比斯开湾海螯虾 - 无须鳕混合渔业可持续管理的数值应用。
