Abhik S, Dommenget Dietmar, McGregor Shayne, Hutchinson David K, Steinig Sebastian, Zhu Jiang, Capitanio Fabio A, Lunt Daniel J, Niezgodzki Igor, Knorr Gregor, Chan Wing-Le, Abe-Ouchi Ayako
School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
Nat Commun. 2025 Apr 30;16(1):4053. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59263-7.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, 56-48 million years ago) is investigated using a multi-model ensemble of deep-time climate simulations. We reveal that ENSO sea surface temperature variability during the EECO had significantly longer periodicity and stronger amplitude than present-day conditions. These changes are attributed to intensified ocean-atmosphere feedback processes and enhanced in-phase tropical inter-basin interactions within a broader ocean basin compared to the present-day. Sensitivity experiments in coupled ocean-atmosphere models suggest that tectonic changes, particularly the expansion of the tropical ocean basin, play a dominant role in amplifying ENSO variability and extending its periodicity, while stronger inter-basin connections further enhance ENSO amplitude. Elevated atmospheric CO levels, though driving substantial mean-state changes, partially offset the tectonic influence on ENSO variability by modifying feedback processes. These findings underscore the role of tropical ocean basin geometry and atmospheric CO levels in shaping ENSO variability, offering insights into past climate dynamics and implications for future projections under sustained global warming.
利用一个多模型集合的深时气候模拟,对始新世早期气候适宜期(EECO,5600万至4800万年前)的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)进行了研究。我们发现,与现今情况相比,EECO期间ENSO海表温度变率具有明显更长的周期和更强的振幅。这些变化归因于海洋-大气反馈过程的强化,以及与现今相比,在更广阔的海洋盆地内增强的同相热带跨盆地相互作用。耦合海洋-大气模型的敏感性实验表明,构造变化,特别是热带海洋盆地的扩张,在放大ENSO变率和延长其周期方面起主导作用,而更强的跨盆地联系进一步增强了ENSO振幅。大气CO₂水平升高,虽然推动了显著的平均状态变化,但通过改变反馈过程,部分抵消了构造对ENSO变率的影响。这些发现强调了热带海洋盆地几何形状和大气CO₂水平在塑造ENSO变率方面的作用,为过去的气候动力学提供了见解,并对持续全球变暖下的未来预测具有启示意义。