Schroeder Carl M, Latimer Heejeong K, Schlosser Wayne D, Golden Neal J, Marks Harry M, Coleman Margaret E, Hogue Allan T, Ebel Eric D, Quiring Nathan M, Kadry Abdel-Razak M, Kause Janell
Office of Public Health Science, Risk Assessment Division, Food Safety and Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, DC 20250-3700, USA.
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2006 Winter;3(4):403-12. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2006.3.403.
In 1998, the United States Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Food and Drug Administration completed a risk assessment that indicated multiple interventions along the farm-to-table chain were needed to reduce the risk of human illness from Salmonella Enteritidis in shell eggs. Based on newly available data and improved modeling techniques, FSIS completed an updated risk assessment to examine the effect of pasteurization and refrigeration on reducing human illnesses from S. Enteritidis in shell eggs. The risk assessment model was written in Visual Basic for Applications (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) and run using Monte Carlo methods. The model estimated that if all shell eggs produced in the United States were pasteurized for a 3-log10 reduction of S. Enteritidis, the annual number of illnesses from S. Enteritidis in eggs would decrease from approximately 130,000 to 40,000. Pasteurization for a 5-log10 reduction of S. Enteritidis was estimated to reduce the annual number of illnesses to 19,000. The model also estimated that if all eggs produced in the United States were stored and held at 7.2 degrees C within 12 hours of lay, the annual number of illnesses from S. Enteritidis in eggs would decrease from 130,000 to 28,000. As a result, rapid cooling and pasteurization of shell eggs were predicted to be highly effective mitigations for reducing illnesses from consumption of S. Enteritidis in shell eggs.
1998年，美国农业部食品安全检验局（FSIS）和食品药品管理局完成了一项风险评估，结果表明，需要在从农场到餐桌的整个链条上采取多种干预措施，以降低食用带壳鸡蛋感染肠炎沙门氏菌而导致人类患病的风险。基于最新可得数据和改进的建模技术，FSIS完成了一项更新的风险评估，以研究巴氏杀菌和冷藏对降低食用带壳鸡蛋感染肠炎沙门氏菌导致人类患病风险的影响。风险评估模型用应用程序可视化Basic语言（微软公司，华盛顿州雷德蒙德）编写，并使用蒙特卡洛方法运行。该模型估计，如果美国生产的所有带壳鸡蛋都经过巴氏杀菌处理，使肠炎沙门氏菌数量减少3个对数级，那么鸡蛋引发的肠炎沙门氏菌年发病例数将从约13万例降至4万例。将肠炎沙门氏菌数量减少5个对数级的巴氏杀菌处理估计可将年发病例数降至1.9万例。该模型还估计，如果美国生产的所有鸡蛋在产下后12小时内储存于7.2摄氏度的环境中，鸡蛋引发的肠炎沙门氏菌年发病例数将从13万例降至2.8万例。因此，预计对带壳鸡蛋进行快速冷却和巴氏杀菌处理是降低食用带壳鸡蛋感染肠炎沙门氏菌导致患病风险的高效缓解措施。
