Reist James D, Wrona Frederick J, Prowse Terry D, Power Michael, Dempson J Brian, Beamish Richard J, King Jacquelynne R, Carmichael Theresa J, Sawatzky Chantelle D
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba.
Ambio. 2006 Nov;35(7):370-80. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[370:geocco]2.0.co;2.
Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.
诸如温度和降水等气候强迫变量的预计变化与北极淡水生态系统及生物群密切相关。这些变化将对生态系统及其中的鱼类产生许多直接和间接影响。预计鱼类种群的变化总体影响从积极到消极不等,因物种而异,也因物种内的种群而异,这取决于它们的生物学特性和耐受性,并且鱼类会在其当地的水域环境中综合这些影响。这为北极淡水鱼和溯河产卵鱼类带来了广泛的未来可能性。由于缺乏关于北极鱼类生物学和栖息地相互作用的基础知识,再加上尺度问题和未来气候预测的不确定性,在大多数情况下只能制定定性的情景。这限制了应对北极地区鱼类和渔业气候变化挑战的准备工作。