Oyana Tonny J, Dai Dajun, Scott Kara E
Department of Geography & Environmental Resource, Southern Illinois University, 1000 Faner Drive, MC 4514, Carbondale, IL 62901-4514, USA.
Avian Dis. 2006 Dec;50(4):508-15. doi: 10.1637/7597-040506.1.
This study investigates spatiotemporal distributions of reported cases of the avian influenza H5N1 (bird flu) in Southern China in early 2004. Forty-nine cases of the avian influenza H5N1 covering a 6-week period (January 19, 2004, through March 9, 2004) were compiled from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and the World Health Organization. Geographic information systems (GIS) techniques combined with statistical techniques were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of reported cases of avian influenza. Using Oden's direction method, we also explored the spatiotemporal interaction of individual-level avian influenza cases during the study duration. The peak period (temporal clustering) for the epidemiological avian influenza outbreak occurred between the third and fourth weeks. Although we observed a major northeast-southwest distribution of the avian influenza H5N1 cases, there was no significant spatiotemporal association in average "direction of advance" of these cases. The directional finding is very consistent with the major migratory bird routes in East Asia, but owing to weak surveillance and reporting systems in the region, the study findings warrant further evaluation.
本研究调查了2004年初中国南方地区报告的H5N1型禽流感（禽流感）病例的时空分布情况。从中国农业部和世界卫生组织收集了49例H5N1型禽流感病例，涵盖了6周的时间段（2004年1月19日至2004年3月9日）。运用地理信息系统（GIS）技术结合统计技术，分析报告的禽流感病例的时空变化。使用奥登方向法，我们还探究了研究期间个体层面禽流感病例的时空相互作用。禽流感疫情的高峰期（时间聚集）出现在第三周和第四周之间。尽管我们观察到H5N1型禽流感病例主要呈东北 - 西南分布，但这些病例的平均“前进方向”没有显著的时空关联。这一方向发现与东亚主要候鸟迁徙路线非常一致，但由于该地区监测和报告系统薄弱，本研究结果有待进一步评估。
