Kobayashi Mimako, Carpenter Tim E, Dickey Bradley F, Howitt Richard E
Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Prev Vet Med. 2007 May 16;79(2-4):274-86. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.001. Epub 2007 Feb 5.
A dynamic optimization model was used to search for optimal strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the three-county region in the Central Valley of California. The model minimized total regional epidemic cost by choosing the levels of depopulation of diagnosed herds, preemptive depopulation, and vaccination. Impacts of limited carcass disposal capacity and vaccination were also examined, and the shadow value, the implicit value of each capacity, was estimated. The model found that to control FMD in the region, (1) preemptive depopulation was not optimal, (2) vaccination, if allowed, was optimal, reducing total cost by 3-7%, (3) increased vaccination capacity reduced total cost up to US$119 per dose, (4) increased carcass disposal capacity reduced total cost by US$9000-59,400 per head with and without vaccination, respectively, and (5) dairy operations should be given preferential attention in allocating limited control resources.
一个动态优化模型被用于寻找控制加利福尼亚中央谷地三县地区口蹄疫（FMD）的最优策略。该模型通过选择确诊畜群的扑杀水平、预防性扑杀和疫苗接种水平，使区域总疫情成本最小化。还研究了有限的尸体处理能力和疫苗接种的影响，并估计了影子价值，即每种能力的隐含价值。该模型发现，为了控制该地区的口蹄疫，（1）预防性扑杀并非最优选择；（2）如果允许，疫苗接种是最优选择，可使总成本降低3-7%；（3）增加疫苗接种能力可使每剂总成本降低高达119美元；（4）增加尸体处理能力分别在有疫苗接种和无疫苗接种的情况下，可使每头总成本降低9000-59400美元；（5）在分配有限的控制资源时，应优先关注奶牛场运营。
