Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA.
FMD Project Office, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ASI Premises, NARC Gate # 2, Park Road, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2020 Nov 21;2020:7841941. doi: 10.1155/2020/7841941. eCollection 2020.
Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
模拟建模已成为估算高度传染性动物疾病传播的常用方法。已经开发了几种模型来模拟口蹄疫（FMD）在特定地区或国家的传播，进行风险评估，利用历史数据或假设情景分析暴发，协助疫情期间的政策决策，制定准备计划，并评估经济影响。大多数现有的 FMD 模拟模型是为无病国家设计和应用的，而在口蹄疫流行国家中，这类模型的使用有限。本文的目的是报告一项研究的结果，该研究旨在回顾现有的关于口蹄疫传播的空间明确随机模拟（SESS）模型的已发表原始研究文献，重点评估这些模型在流行地区的潜在用途。目标是确定需要对这些 SESS 模型进行哪些特定的调整，以使其在流行地区的口蹄疫中得到应用。本系统评价遵循 PRISMA 指南，并在三个数据库中进行了搜索，共产生了 1176 条引文。最后，有 80 条引文符合纳入标准，并纳入定性综合分析，确定了 9 个独特的 SESS 模型。这些 SESS 模型被评估了其在流行地区的潜在应用。通过修改基础代码，将多个共同循环血清型、常规预防性接种（RPV）和牲畜种群动态纳入其中，可以使评估的 SESS 模型适应口蹄疫流行国家的使用，从而更真实地模拟口蹄疫的流行特征。在流行地区应用 SESS 模型将有助于评估口蹄疫控制策略，这将改善牲畜健康，为生产者带来经济收益，有助于减轻贫困和饥饿，并将补充实现可持续发展目标的努力。
Zotero 插件