Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 Jul;67(4):1633-1644. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13500. Epub 2020 Feb 13.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects ruminants and pigs. Countries with large exports of livestock products are highly vulnerable to economic damage following an FMD incursion. The faster disease spread is controlled, the lower the economic damage. During the past decades, the structure of livestock production has dramatically changed. To maintain the relevance of contingency plans, it is important to understand the effects of changes in herd structure on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In this study, we compare the spread and control of FMD based on 2006/2007 and 2018 livestock data. Spread of FMD in Denmark was simulated using the DTU-DADS model, applying different control measures. The number of cattle, swine and sheep/goat herds reduced from about 50,000 in total in 2006/2007 to about 33,000 in 2018. During this period, the average number of outgoing animal movements and the exports of swine and swine products increased by about 35% and 22%, respectively. This coincided with an overall increase in herd size of 14%. Using the EU and national control measures (Basic: 3 days standstill, depopulation of detected herds followed by cleaning and disinfection and establishment of control zones, where tracing, surveillance and contact restrictions are implemented), we found that the simulated epidemics in 2018 would be about 50% shorter in duration, affect about 50% fewer herds but cause more economic damage, compared to epidemics using 2006/2007 data. When 2006/2007 data were used, Basic + pre-emptive depopulation (Depop) overall was the optimal control strategy. When 2018 data were used, this was the case only when epidemics were initiated in cattle herds, whereas when epidemics were initiated in sow or sheep/goats herds, basic performed as well as Depop. The results demonstrate that regular assessment of measures to control the spread of infectious diseases is necessary for contingency planning.
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种高度传染性的病毒病，影响反刍动物和猪。出口牲畜产品的国家在发生口蹄疫疫情后面临巨大的经济损失。疾病传播速度控制得越快，经济损失就越低。在过去几十年中，牲畜生产结构发生了巨大变化。为了保持应急预案的相关性，了解畜群结构变化对口蹄疫传播和控制的影响非常重要。在这项研究中，我们根据 2006/2007 年和 2018 年的牲畜数据比较了口蹄疫的传播和控制。丹麦的口蹄疫传播使用 DTU-DADS 模型进行模拟，应用了不同的控制措施。2006/2007 年，牛、猪和绵羊/山羊畜群的数量总计约为 5 万头，到 2018 年减少到约 3.3 万头。在此期间，动物外出活动的平均数量以及猪和猪产品的出口分别增加了约 35%和 22%。这与畜群规模的总体增长 14%相吻合。使用欧盟和国家控制措施（基本措施：3 天停摆，检测到的畜群扑杀，随后进行清洁和消毒，并建立控制区，实施追踪、监测和接触限制），我们发现与使用 2006/2007 年数据的模拟疫情相比，2018 年的模拟疫情持续时间将缩短约 50%，受影响的畜群数量将减少约 50%，但造成的经济损失将更大。当使用 2006/2007 年的数据时，基本措施+预防性扑杀（Depop）总体上是最佳的控制策略。当使用 2018 年的数据时，这种情况仅在疫情始于牛群时才成立，而当疫情始于母猪或绵羊/山羊群时，基本措施与 Depop 一样有效。结果表明，定期评估控制传染病传播的措施对于应急计划是必要的。
