Dennison Elaine, Mohamed Maysam Abdin, Cooper Cyrus
MRC Epidemiology Resource Centre, Southampton General Hospital, Tremona Road, Southampton SO16 6YD, United Kingdom.
Rheum Dis Clin North Am. 2006 Nov;32(4):617-29. doi: 10.1016/j.rdc.2006.08.003.
Osteoporotic fractures represent a significant public health burden, which is set to increase in future generations. Lifetime risk is high and lies within the range of 40% to 50% in women and 13% to 22% in men. Life expectancy is increasing worldwide, and it is estimated that the number of individuals aged 65 years and older will increase from the current figure of 323 million to 1555 million by the year 2050. These demographic changes alone can be expected to cause the number of hip fractures occurring worldwide to increase from 1.66 million in 1990 to 6.26 million in 2050. Based on current trends, hip fracture rates might increase in the United Kingdom from 46,000 in 1985 to 117,000 in 2016. The societal cost of these fractures is high; cost-effectiveness analyses showed cost-effectiveness in treating high-risk patients with antiresorptive drugs, particularly if administered as soon as possible after a first fragility fracture.
骨质疏松性骨折是一项重大的公共卫生负担，且在未来几代人中还会增加。终身风险很高，女性为40%至50%，男性为13%至22%。全球预期寿命正在延长，据估计，到2050年，65岁及以上的老年人数量将从目前的3.23亿增加到15.55亿。仅这些人口结构变化就可能导致全球髋部骨折的数量从1990年的166万增加到2050年的626万。根据当前趋势，英国的髋部骨折发生率可能会从1985年的46000例增加到2016年的117000例。这些骨折的社会成本很高；成本效益分析表明，用抗吸收药物治疗高危患者具有成本效益，特别是在首次脆性骨折后尽快给药的情况下。
