Jerrett M, Arain M A, Kanaroglou P, Beckerman B, Crouse D, Gilbert N L, Brook J R, Finkelstein N, Finkelstein M M
Division of Environmental Health Sciences School of Public Health, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720-7360, USA.
J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2007 Feb 1;70(3-4):200-12. doi: 10.1080/15287390600883018.
The objective of this paper is to model determinants of intraurban variation in ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in Toronto, Canada, with a land use regression (LUR) model. Although researchers have conducted similar studies in Europe, this work represents the first attempt in a North American setting to characterize variation in traffic pollution through the LUR method. NO2 samples were collected over 2 wk using duplicate two-sided Ogawa passive diffusion samplers at 95 locations across Toronto. Independent variables employed in subsequent regression models as predictors of NO2 were derived by the Arc 8 geographic information system (GIS). Some 85 indicators of land use, traffic, population density, and physical geography were tested. The final regression model yielded a coefficient of determination (R2) of .69. For the traffic variables, density of 24-h traffic counts and road measures display positive associations. For the land use variables, industrial land use and counts of dwellings within 2000 m of the monitoring location were positively associated with NO2. Locations up to 1500 m downwind of major expressways had elevated NO2 levels. The results suggest that a good predictive surface can be derived for North American cities with the LUR method. The predictive maps from the LUR appear to capture small-area variation in NO2 concentrations. These small-area variations in traffic pollution are probably important to the exposure experience of the population and may detect health effects that would have gone unnoticed with other exposure estimates.
本文的目的是使用土地利用回归(LUR)模型,对加拿大多伦多市城区内二氧化氮(NO₂)环境浓度变化的决定因素进行建模。尽管研究人员在欧洲开展过类似研究,但这项工作是在北美环境下首次尝试通过LUR方法来描述交通污染的变化情况。使用一式两份的双面小川被动扩散采样器,在多伦多市95个地点,历时2周采集了NO₂样本。后续回归模型中用作NO₂预测指标的自变量,是通过Arc 8地理信息系统(GIS)得出的。对约85个土地利用、交通、人口密度和自然地理指标进行了测试。最终回归模型的决定系数(R²)为0.69。对于交通变量,24小时交通流量密度和道路指标呈现正相关。对于土地利用变量,工业用地以及监测地点2000米范围内的住宅数量与NO₂呈正相关。在主要高速公路下风方向1500米范围内的地点,NO₂水平有所升高。结果表明,使用LUR方法可为北美城市得出良好的预测表面。LUR生成的预测地图似乎能够捕捉到NO₂浓度的小区域变化。交通污染的这些小区域变化可能对人群的暴露经历很重要,并且可能检测到其他暴露估计中未被注意到的健康影响。