Mohar A, De Gruttola V, Mueller N, Sepúlveda J
Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Mexico City.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (1988). 1992;5(3):265-70.
As in many developing countries, the AIDS epidemic in Mexico has become a major public health problem. Given the competition for scarce health resources in Mexico, where hospitals are overcrowded and care for AIDS patients is often unavailable, planning depends on accurate estimates of the incidence of AIDS and the prevalence of HIV-1 infection. This article presents estimates of AIDS incidence in Mexico corrected for delays in reporting and short-term projections based on the corrected AIDS incidence. Trends in incidence cannot be assessed without such correction because only about 50% of AIDS cases are reported within 4 months of diagnosis. In addition to information on AIDS incidence, short-term projections also require estimates of the latency distribution between infection with HIV-1 and onset of AIDS. Latency periods with medians of 8 and 10 years lead to estimates that 22,000 and 24,000 new AIDS cases infected before June 1989 will be diagnosed between 1989 and 1994.
与许多发展中国家一样，艾滋病疫情在墨西哥已成为一个重大的公共卫生问题。鉴于墨西哥卫生资源稀缺，医院人满为患，且往往无法为艾滋病患者提供护理，规划工作依赖于对艾滋病发病率和HIV-1感染流行率的准确估计。本文给出了经报告延迟校正后的墨西哥艾滋病发病率估计值，以及基于校正后的艾滋病发病率的短期预测。如果不进行这种校正，就无法评估发病率趋势，因为只有约50%的艾滋病病例在诊断后4个月内得到报告。除了艾滋病发病率信息外，短期预测还需要估计HIV-1感染与艾滋病发病之间的潜伏期分布。潜伏期中位数分别为8年和10年，据此估计，1989年6月之前感染的22000例和24000例新艾滋病病例将在1989年至1994年期间被诊断出来。
