Kristiansen Ivar S, Halvorsen Peder A, Gyrd-Hansen Dorte
Institute of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Norway.
BMC Public Health. 2007 Apr 2;7:48. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-7-48.
An influenza pandemic may have considerable impact on health and societal functioning. The aim of this study was to explore people's reflections on the consequences of a pandemic.
Cross-sectional web-based survey of 1,168 Norwegians aged 16-82 years. The main outcome measures were answers to questions about a potential pandemic ("serious influenza epidemic"): statements about personal precautions including stockpiling Tamiflu, the perceived number of fatalities, the perceived effects of Tamiflu, the sources of information about influenza and trust in public information.
While 80% of the respondents stated that they would be "careful about personal hygiene", only a few would stay away from work (2%), or move to an isolated place (4%). While 27% of respondents were uncertain about the number of fatalities during an influenza pandemic, 48% thought it would be lower than the estimate of Norwegian health authorities (0.05%-1%) and only 3% higher. At least half of the respondents thought that Tamiflu might reduce the mortality risk, but less than 1% had personally purchased the drug. The great majority had received their information from the mass media, and only 9% directly from health authorities. Still the majority (65%) trusted information from the authorities, and only 9% reported overt distrust.
In Norway, considerable proportions of people seem to consider the mortality risk during a pandemic less than health authorities do. Most people seem to be prepared to take some, but not especially disruptive, precautions.
流感大流行可能对健康和社会功能产生重大影响。本研究旨在探讨人们对大流行后果的看法。
对1168名年龄在16 - 82岁的挪威人进行基于网络的横断面调查。主要观察指标是关于潜在大流行（“严重流感疫情”）问题的答案：关于个人预防措施的陈述，包括储备达菲、预计死亡人数、达菲的预期效果、流感信息来源以及对公共信息的信任度。
虽然80%的受访者表示他们会“注意个人卫生”，但只有少数人会请假（2%）或搬到隔离地点（4%）。虽然27%的受访者对流感大流行期间的死亡人数不确定，但48%的人认为死亡人数会低于挪威卫生当局的估计（0.05% - 1%），只有3%的人认为会更高。至少一半的受访者认为达菲可能会降低死亡风险，但亲自购买该药的人不到1%。绝大多数人从大众媒体获取信息，只有9%的人直接从卫生当局获取信息。然而，大多数人（65%）信任当局提供的信息，只有9%的人表示明显不信任。
在挪威，相当一部分人似乎认为大流行期间的死亡风险低于卫生当局的评估。大多数人似乎准备采取一些预防措施，但不会采取特别具有破坏性的措施。
