Laver Michael, Schilperoord Michel
Department of Politics, New York University, 726 Broadway, New York, NY 10011, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2007 Sep 29;362(1485):1711-21. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2062.
Two important human action selection processes are the choice by citizens of parties to support in elections and the choice by party leaders of policy 'packages' offered to citizens in order to attract this support. Having reviewed approaches analysing these choices and the reasons for doing this using the methodology of agent-based modelling, we extend a recent agent-based model of party competition to treat the number and identity of political parties as an output of, rather than an input to, the process of party competition. Party birth is modelled as an endogenous change of agent type from citizen to party leader, which requires describing citizen dissatisfaction with the history of the system. Endogenous birth and death of parties transforms into a dynamic system even in an environment where all agents have otherwise non-responsive adaptive rules. A key parameter is the survival threshold, with lower thresholds leaving citizens on average less dissatisfied. Paradoxically, the adaptive rule most successful for party leaders in winning votes makes citizens on average less happy than under other policy-selection rules.
两个重要的人类行动选择过程，一是公民在选举中选择支持的政党，二是政党领袖选择向公民提供的政策“组合”，以吸引这种支持。在回顾了分析这些选择的方法以及使用基于主体建模方法进行此类分析的原因之后，我们扩展了一个最近的政党竞争基于主体模型，将政党的数量和身份视为政党竞争过程的输出而非输入。政党诞生被建模为主体类型从公民到政党领袖的内生变化，这需要描述公民对系统历史的不满。政党的内生诞生和消亡转化为一个动态系统，即使在所有主体都具有其他无响应适应性规则的环境中也是如此。一个关键参数是生存阈值，较低的阈值平均而言会使公民的不满程度降低。矛盾的是，对政党领袖赢得选票最成功的适应性规则，平均而言会使公民比在其他政策选择规则下更不开心。
