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天气：中国严重急性呼吸综合征传播背后的驱动因素？

Weather: driving force behind the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China?

作者信息

Bi P, Wang J, Hiller J E

机构信息

Discipline of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

出版信息

Intern Med J. 2007 Aug;37(8):550-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1445-5994.2007.01358.x. Epub 2007 Apr 16.

DOI:10.1111/j.1445-5994.2007.01358.x
PMID:17445010
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7165838/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

The association between weather and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) transmission in Beijing and Hong Kong in the 2003 epidemic was studied to examine the effect of weather on SARS transmission.

METHODS

Pearson's correlation analyses and negative binomial regression analyses were used to quantify the correlations between the daily newly reported number of SARS cases and weather variables, using daily disease notification data and meteorological data from the two locations.

RESULTS

The results indicate that there were inverse association between the number of daily cases and maximum and/or minimum temperatures whereas air pressure was found to be positively associated with SARS transmission.

CONCLUSION

The study suggests that weather might be a contributory factor in the 2003 SARS epidemic, in particular in the transmission among the community members.

摘要

背景

研究了2003年北京和香港严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）疫情期间天气与SARS传播之间的关联，以检验天气对SARS传播的影响。

方法

利用两地的每日疾病通报数据和气象数据，采用Pearson相关分析和负二项回归分析来量化每日新报告SARS病例数与天气变量之间的相关性。

结果

结果表明，每日病例数与最高和/或最低温度之间呈负相关，而气压与SARS传播呈正相关。

结论

该研究表明，天气可能是2003年SARS疫情的一个促成因素，尤其是在社区成员之间的传播中。

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本文引用的文献

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2
[Analysis on the multi-distribution and the major influencing factors on severe acute respiratory syndrome in Beijing].[北京严重急性呼吸综合征的多分布及主要影响因素分析]
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2005 Mar;26(3):164-8.
3
An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation.非典疫情与天气关联的初步调查：基于环境温度及其变化的视角
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4
Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability.流感流行与全球气候变化的关联。
Eur J Epidemiol. 2004;19(11):1055-9. doi: 10.1007/s10654-004-2450-9.
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Seasonality of infectious diseases and severe acute respiratory syndrome-what we don't know can hurt us.传染病的季节性与严重急性呼吸综合征——我们未知的情况可能会伤害我们。
Lancet Infect Dis. 2004 Nov;4(11):704-8. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(04)01177-6.
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SARS in healthcare facilities, Toronto and Taiwan.多伦多和台湾医疗机构中的严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）
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