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哥斯达黎加鲨鱼上岸量的博克斯-詹金斯分析。

Box-Jenkins analysis for shark landings in Costa Rica.

作者信息

Bonilla Roger, Chavarría Juan B

机构信息

Escuela de Estadistica, Universidad de Costa Rica, 2060 San José, Costa Rica.

出版信息

Rev Biol Trop. 2004 Dec;52 Suppl 2:183-8.

PMID:17465136
Abstract

Sharks are highly vulnerable to intense and prolonged fishery extraction. This article analyzes the data on shark landings from the artisan fishing fleet on Costa Rica's Pacific coast between 1988 and 1997. The data come from an invoicing system administered by the Costa Rican Fisheries Institute (Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA). Pacific coast shark fishing during the period under study represented approximately 20% of the total national fisheries volume. According to data from the invoicing system, the Northern Pacific region was the most productive, reporting 58% of the shark catch nationwide. Within this region, shark fishing in Papagayo Gulf represented 91% and 53% of the landings by fishery region and nationwide, respectively. The mid-sized and advanced (length of boat > 10 meters) artisan fishing fleets reported 96% of the shark catches in the zone. The study of shark fisheries in the Papagayo Gulf zone is crucial for an understanding of fishery dynamics for this resource at the national level. A monthly chronological series was constructed with the landings in the Papagayo Gulf zone, and a Univariate Box-Jenkins (UBJ) Model was estimated for first-order moving averages MA(1) with a seasonal component of the Yt = lamda(t-1) + gammaS12 + a(t) type.

摘要

鲨鱼极易受到高强度和长期渔业捕捞的影响。本文分析了1988年至1997年期间哥斯达黎加太平洋沿岸个体捕鱼船队的鲨鱼上岸数据。这些数据来自哥斯达黎加渔业和水产养殖研究所(Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA)管理的发票系统。在研究期间,太平洋沿岸的鲨鱼捕捞量约占全国渔业总量的20%。根据发票系统的数据,北太平洋地区产量最高,占全国鲨鱼捕捞量的58%。在该地区内,帕帕加约湾的鲨鱼捕捞量分别占各渔业区域和全国上岸量的91%和53%。中型和先进(船长>10米)个体捕鱼船队报告了该区域96%的鲨鱼捕捞量。对帕帕加约湾区域鲨鱼渔业的研究对于了解国家层面该资源的渔业动态至关重要。利用帕帕加约湾区域的上岸量构建了一个月度时间序列,并估计了一个单变量Box-Jenkins(UBJ)模型,用于具有Yt = lamda(t - 1) + gammaS12 + a(t)类型季节性成分的一阶移动平均MA(1)。

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