Hosmer D W, Taber S, Lemeshow S
School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts/Amherst 01003.
Am J Public Health. 1991 Dec;81(12):1630-5. doi: 10.2105/ajph.81.12.1630.
The logistic regression model is being used with increasing frequency in all areas of public health research. In the calendar year 1989, over 30% of the articles published in the American Journal of Public Health employed some form of logistic regression modeling. In spite of this increase, there has been no commensurate increase in the use of commonly available methods for assessing model adequacy.
We review the current status of the use of logistic regression modeling in the American Journal of Public Health. We present a brief overview of currently available and easily used methods for assessing the adequacy of a fitted logistic regression model.
An example is used to demonstrate the methods as well as a few of the adverse consequences of failing to assess the fit of the model. One important adverse consequence illustrated in the example is the inclusion of variables in the model as a result of the influence of one subject.
Failure to address model adequacy may lead to misleading or incorrect inferences. Recommendations are made for the use of methods for assessing model adequacy and for future editorial policy in regard to the review of articles using logistic regression.
逻辑回归模型在公共卫生研究的各个领域使用频率日益增加。在1989历年，《美国公共卫生杂志》发表的文章中超过30%采用了某种形式的逻辑回归建模。尽管使用频率增加，但在评估模型拟合优度的常用方法的使用上却没有相应增加。
我们回顾了《美国公共卫生杂志》中逻辑回归建模的使用现状。我们简要概述了当前可用且易于使用的评估拟合逻辑回归模型拟合优度的方法。
通过一个例子展示这些方法以及未评估模型拟合度的一些不良后果。该例子中说明的一个重要不良后果是由于一个受试者的影响而将变量纳入模型。
未能解决模型拟合优度问题可能导致误导性或错误的推断。针对评估模型拟合优度的方法的使用以及未来关于使用逻辑回归的文章评审的编辑政策提出了建议。
