Tomari T, Yanagihashi T, Wakisaka I, Uda H, Torimaru H
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Kagoshima University.
Nihon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 1991 May;38(5):315-23.
A study to clarify the relationship between seasonal variations in mortality from cerebro-cardiovascular diseases and ambient temperature (maximum/minimum temperature and daily range) was performed using time series analysis, and the role of ambient temperature as an associated factor in cerebro-cardiovascular disease caused death was discussed. The following results were obtained: 1) The seasonality factor associated with the monthly variation for mortality was of greater magnitude for heart diseases more than for cerebral diseases. There was a tendency for mortality from cardiac diseases to decline gradually from February/March to July/August, and to increase in October/November, with a maximum peak in the curve of seasonal variation observed in January/February. 2) The seasonal factor associated with maximum/minimum temperature and daily temperature range showed a stable variation in magnitude from January to December, with temperatures displaying a single peak in August. Daily temperature range was lowest during summer and highest during the late fall, winter or early spring. 3) A statistically significant negative correlation was seen between mortality from cerebro-cardiovascular diseases and seasonality and temperature, while a positive correlation was seen between mortality and daily temperature range, suggesting that low environmental temperatures may operate indirectly as a factor that affects cerebro-cardiovascular disease mortality.
利用时间序列分析开展了一项研究,以阐明脑血管疾病死亡率的季节性变化与环境温度(最高/最低温度及日温差)之间的关系,并探讨环境温度作为脑血管疾病致死相关因素的作用。得出以下结果:1)与死亡率月度变化相关的季节性因素,在心脏病方面比在脑部疾病方面更为显著。心脏病死亡率有从2月/3月至7月/8月逐渐下降、在10月/11月上升的趋势,在1月/2月观察到季节性变化曲线出现最高峰值。2)与最高/最低温度及日温差相关的季节性因素,从1月至12月在幅度上呈现稳定变化,温度在8月出现单峰。日温差在夏季最低,在深秋、冬季或早春最高。3)脑血管疾病死亡率与季节性及温度之间存在统计学显著的负相关,而死亡率与日温差之间存在正相关,这表明低环境温度可能间接作为影响脑血管疾病死亡率的一个因素。