Andreae Meinrat O
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2007 Jul 15;365(1856):1915-23. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2051.
Looked at in a simplistic way, aerosols have counteracted the warming effects of greenhouse gases (GHG) over the past century. This has not only provided some 'climate protection', but also prevented the true magnitude of the problem from becoming evident. In particular, it may have resulted in an underestimation of the sensitivity of the climate system to the effect of GHG. Over the present century, the role of aerosols in opposing global warming will wane, as there are powerful policy reasons to reduce their emissions and their atmospheric lifetimes are short in contrast to those of the GHG. On the other hand, aerosols will continue to play a role in regional climate change, especially with regard to the water cycle. The end of significant climate protection by atmospheric aerosols, combined with the potentially very high sensitivity of the climate system, makes sharp and prompt reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2, very urgent.
从简单的角度来看，在过去的一个世纪里，气溶胶抵消了温室气体（GHG）的变暖效应。这不仅提供了一些“气候保护”，还阻止了问题的真正严重程度变得明显。特别是，这可能导致对气候系统对温室气体影响的敏感性估计不足。在本世纪，气溶胶在对抗全球变暖方面的作用将减弱，因为有强有力的政策理由减少它们的排放，而且与温室气体相比，它们在大气中的寿命较短。另一方面，气溶胶将继续在区域气候变化中发挥作用，特别是在水循环方面。大气气溶胶显著的气候保护作用的结束，再加上气候系统可能非常高的敏感性，使得迅速大幅减少温室气体排放，尤其是二氧化碳排放，变得非常紧迫。
