Prattley D J, Morris R S, Cannon R M, Wilesmith J W, Stevenson M A
EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary, Animal, and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Prev Vet Med. 2007 Oct 16;81(4):225-35. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.03.006. Epub 2007 May 22.
Our BSurvE spreadsheet model estimates the BSE prevalence in a national cattle population, and can be used to evaluate and compare alternative strategies for a national surveillance program. Each individual surveillance test has a point value (based on demographic and epidemiological information) that reflects the likelihood of detecting BSE in an animal of a given age leaving the population via the stated surveillance stream. A target sum point value for the country is calculated according to a user-defined design prevalence and confidence level, the number of cases detected in animals born after the selected starting date and the national adult-herd size. Surveillance tests carried out on different sub-populations of animals are ranked according to the number of points gained per unit cost, and the results can be used in designing alternative surveillance programs.
我们的BSurvE电子表格模型可估算全国牛群中牛海绵状脑病（BSE）的流行率，并可用于评估和比较国家监测计划的替代策略。每项个体监测检测都有一个分值（基于人口统计学和流行病学信息），该分值反映了通过规定监测流程在特定年龄的动物中检测到BSE的可能性，这些动物会离开该群体。根据用户定义的设计流行率和置信水平、选定起始日期后出生的动物中检测到的病例数以及全国成年牛群规模，计算出该国的目标总分值。对不同动物亚群体进行的监测检测按单位成本获得的分值进行排名，结果可用于设计替代监测计划。
