Cameriere Roberto, Ferrante Luigi, Ermenc Branko, Mirtella Dora, Strus Katja
Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Macerata, Via Don Minzoni 9, 62100 Macerata, Italy.
Forensic Sci Int. 2008 Jan 30;174(2-3):178-81. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2007.04.212. Epub 2007 May 23.
Carpals are often used as age indicators. In a recent study, Cameriere et al. studied the use of the ratio between the total area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (Bo) and carpals (Ca) as age indicators. The present study, of a sample of 158 Slovenian children and adolescents aged between 6 and 16 years, focused on analysing the best regression for age estimation. The regression model yielded the following equation: age=-3.411+0.942 g+20.927(Bo/Ca), and explained 91.6% of total variance (R(2)=0.916). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.09 years, with a quartile deviation of 0.786 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.658 years. Comparisons between the previous equation referring to Slovenian children and the equivalent linear equation proposed by Cameriere et al. did not reveal any significant differences between the intercepts and slopes of the two linear models. These results suggested a common regression model for both Italian and Slovenian samples. The common regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender and Bo/Ca ratio, yielded the following linear regression formula: age=-2.907+0.408 g+20.757(Bo/Ca). This model explained 86% of total variance (R(2)=0.86). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.02 years, with a quartile deviation of 1.02 years and a standard error of estimate of 0.96 years.
腕骨常被用作年龄指标。在最近一项研究中，卡梅里埃等人研究了尺骨和桡骨骨骺（Bo）与腕骨（Ca）总面积之比作为年龄指标的用途。本研究以158名年龄在6至16岁之间的斯洛文尼亚儿童和青少年为样本，重点分析年龄估计的最佳回归方程。回归模型得出以下方程：年龄 = -3.411 + 0.942g + 20.927（Bo/Ca），并解释了总方差的91.6%（R² = 0.916）。残差绝对值（观察年龄减去预测年龄）的中位数为0.09岁，四分位数偏差为0.786岁，估计标准误差为0.658岁。将之前针对斯洛文尼亚儿童的方程与卡梅里埃等人提出的等效线性方程进行比较，未发现两个线性模型的截距和斜率存在任何显著差异。这些结果表明意大利和斯洛文尼亚样本存在共同的回归模型。该共同回归模型将年龄描述为性别和Bo/Ca比率的线性函数，得出以下线性回归公式：年龄 = -2.907 + 0.408g + 20.757（Bo/Ca）。该模型解释了总方差的86%（R² = 0.86）。残差绝对值（观察年龄减去预测年龄）的中位数为0.02岁，四分位数偏差为1.02岁，估计标准误差为0.96岁。
