Bayesian analysis for proportions with an independent background effect.

Conventional Bayesian analysis for proportions is not appropriate for proportions with a background effect, for example, for the proportion of correct responses in a sensory difference test using a forced-choice method with a guessing probability. The main difficulty is that it is not reasonable to assume that a proportion with a background effect has a beta prior distribution. A generalized posterior distribution for proportions is derived in this paper. It includes the standard beta posterior distribution for a proportion without background effect as a special case. Bayesian inference and Bayesian sample size determination for proportions based on the generalized posterior distribution are discussed.