Taha Taha E, Hoover Donald R, Kumwenda Newton I, Fiscus Susan A, Kafulafula George, Nkhoma Chiwawa, Chen Shu, Piwowar Estelle, Broadhead Robin L, Jackson J Brooks, Miotti Paolo G
Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
J Infect Dis. 2007 Jul 1;196(1):10-4. doi: 10.1086/518511. Epub 2007 May 24.
The present study was undertaken to determine the risk and timing of late postnatal transmission (LPT) of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1).
Breast-fed infants previously enrolled in 2 trials of antiretroviral prophylaxis were monitored in Malawi. Kaplan-Meier and proportional hazard models assessed cumulative incidence and association of factors with LPT.
Overall, 98 infants were HIV infected, and 1158 were uninfected. The cumulative risk of LPT at age 24 months was 9.68% (95% confidence interval, 7.80%-11.56%). The interval hazards at 1.5-6, 6-12, 12-18, and 18-24 months were 1.22%, 4.05%, 3.48%, and 1.27%, respectively.
The risk of LPT beyond 6 months is substantial. Weaning at 6 months could prevent >85% of LPT.
本研究旨在确定1型人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV-1）产后晚期传播（LPT）的风险和时间。
在马拉维对先前参加两项抗逆转录病毒预防试验的母乳喂养婴儿进行监测。采用Kaplan-Meier法和比例风险模型评估LPT的累积发病率及相关因素。
总体而言，98名婴儿感染了HIV，1158名未感染。24个月龄时LPT的累积风险为9.68%（95%置信区间为7.80%-11.56%）。1.5至6个月、6至12个月、12至18个月和18至24个月的期间风险分别为1.22%、4.05%、3.48%和1.27%。
6个月后发生LPT的风险很大。6个月时断奶可预防超过85%的LPT。
